On average, New Zealand experiences at least one ex-tropical cyclone passing within 550km of the country every year. For the coming TC season, the risk for New Zealand is slightly higher than normal. If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, it has a higher probability of passing east rather than west of Auckland city.
Peak cyclone season is usually from January to March. In seasons with similar background climate conditions to present, several tropical cyclones occurred over the Gulf of Carpentaria and countries near the International Date Line. In addition, TCs also occurred near Fiji, Tonga, and Niue while a few affected other areas. On average, nearly half of the tropical cyclones that developed since the 1969-70 season have reached hurricane force with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots (118 km/h).
